Earlier this month the Lookery blog looked at the booms and busts of behavioral targeting.
They point out that behavioral targeting is most visibly effective for online direct response in considered purchases (where the decision to buy takes a while, so there is some time to notice purchase intent and start to target advertising). They also point out that some of the industries that have these characteristics have gone through wild cycles of increased then decreased demand, sometimes for structural reasons, sometimes for legal reasons, and sometimes for economic cycle reasons:
* Auto – 2004-2008
Auto has always been a major driver of behavioral targeting the last few years benefitting everyone from Google to Internet Brands (aka Carsdirect.com)
* Household Durables – 2004-2008
The rise of high end e-commerce fueled consumer electronics and appliance e-commerce sties
* Mortgage & Finance – 2003-2006
With qualified leads selling from $50-500 a pop, companies like LowerMyBills made a killing
* Mobile Phones & Ring Tones – 2004-2006
A key driver of under 30 monetization as mobile co’s and ring tone services went wild chasing this high converting group
* Online Dating – 2004-2006
Before the rise of free sites like OkCupid, Plentyoffish, Woome, & Craigslist, dating paid some of the best CPA’s online
* Online Gambling 2002 to 2005
Gambling esp. poker was a major gold rush for online pubs emerging from the last ad recession with high payouts at least until the FTC decided to get all uppity
The economic cycle will turn eventually and bring back auto, mortgage and durables demand. Mobile and Online Dating may not return as strongly as they have been pressured by prices falling to marginal cost. I think online gaming will drive the next cycle. Let’s see.